"The Cognitive Revolution" · 11/7/2026 · 88 min

AI:AM: Is THIS the AI We Want? Alarming Acceleration, AI Election Bets, GPU Trading & AI-Native VC

Transcript (27 segments)

0:20

SPEAKER_C

It might be time to spend more time with our family because it does feel to me like basically the AI 2027 timeline more or less is coming true.

5:34

SPEAKER_B

The new language, Anthropic says it may imminently meet its own threshold for dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.

5:34

SPEAKER_B

The new language, Anthropic says it may imminently meet its own threshold for dramatically accelerated progress attributable to AI.

5:50

SPEAKER_D

And in that update, they added language saying they we are imminently about to see recursive self-improvement.

0:47

SPEAKER_D

Which is they go in and they acquire land at like pennies on the dollar, using LLCs, and after that they merge the pieces of land and then they're like, oh, Meta is here.

0:47

SPEAKER_D

Which is they go in and they acquire land at like pennies on the dollar, using LLCs, and after that they merge the pieces of land and then they're like, oh, Meta is here.

1:43

SPEAKER_D

If you have political willpower, all contracts are worth dust.

1:43

SPEAKER_D

If you have political willpower, all contracts are worth dust.

2:02

Mike San Miguel

every OEM's a little bit different. Nvidia works closely with all the OEMs around allocation and around green lighting orders. Nvidia also typically is going to check every six months and make sure those GPUs are where they're supposed to be.

2:02

Mike San Miguel

every OEM's a little bit different. Nvidia works closely with all the OEMs around allocation and around green lighting orders. Nvidia also typically is going to check every six months and make sure those GPUs are where they're supposed to be.

1:56

Mike San Miguel

You've got there's some compliances, these things are traded, more closely than some nuclear secrets.

1:56

Mike San Miguel

You've got there's some compliances, these things are traded, more closely than some nuclear secrets.

2:34

Brian Zhou

It takes forecasting agents a bit of time to say, see an election result, communicate it to their trader, et cetera. And by that time, more programmatic or more deterministic algorithms and bots have already traded on this information before.

2:34

Brian Zhou

It takes forecasting agents a bit of time to say, see an election result, communicate it to their trader, et cetera. And by that time, more programmatic or more deterministic algorithms and bots have already traded on this information before.

3:28

Brian Zhou

this is like pretty indicative of what we were seeing where the traders were doing quite well the week before election day, and then on election day, they simply didn't react fast enough and sometimes made up incorrect information, which resulted in the traders losing a lot of money.

3:28

Brian Zhou

this is like pretty indicative of what we were seeing where the traders were doing quite well the week before election day, and then on election day, they simply didn't react fast enough and sometimes made up incorrect information, which resulted in the traders losing a lot of money.

3:59

Bryan Bischof

There is a lot of, I would say, acceleration in model drops, and so right now, tying your production service to open source models requires a little bit more, thrash in the engineering.

3:59

Bryan Bischof

There is a lot of, I would say, acceleration in model drops, and so right now, tying your production service to open source models requires a little bit more, thrash in the engineering.

4:16

Bryan Bischof

And so I heard from a couple folks, specifically, yes, but the open source models change so fast, it's a little bit more convenient to pin to an open AI model.

4:16

Bryan Bischof

And so I heard from a couple folks, specifically, yes, but the open source models change so fast, it's a little bit more convenient to pin to an open AI model.

5:50

SPEAKER_D

And in that update, they added language saying they we are imminently about to see recursive self-improvement.

5:59

SPEAKER_D

I've always had in my mind why they're doing the IPO and why so quickly, and my take has always been, I think within the company, there is a sense that you need more controls, more people have to have exposure and more control over this, and that's and one way of getting this out there is getting the IPO done so that

5:59

SPEAKER_D

I've always had in my mind why they're doing the IPO and why so quickly, and my take has always been, I think within the company, there is a sense that you need more controls, more people have to have exposure and more control over this, and that's and one way of getting this out there is getting the IPO done so that

6:57

SPEAKER_D

you give a larger part of society like hooks into it and the ability to kind of express that desires through the market, etc, etc. To me, imminent is basically like like a month.

7:11

SPEAKER_C

Usually what I assume when I hear these sorts of statements is that it means now.

6:57

SPEAKER_D

you give a larger part of society like hooks into it and the ability to kind of express that desires through the market, etc, etc. To me, imminent is basically like like a month.

7:11

SPEAKER_C

Usually what I assume when I hear these sorts of statements is that it means now.