We try to fix election polling (update)

SPEAKER_B

Every time election season comes around and you see all of those frantic election polls in the news, I think back to the time that I learned just how hard it is to actually do one of those election polls and why it's gotten so hard.

SPEAKER_B

This was back in 2022 when we, as in we at Planet Money, had an idea to try and maybe fix polling and one very generous polling outfit actually let us try out our idea.

SPEAKER_B

Because the biggest problem that Daniela and other pollsters are facing right now, not enough people are completing surveys.

SPEAKER_B

Because for years, the polls have been off.

SPEAKER_B

Gallup said the problem with the Literary Digest poll was that the respondents, even though there were a lot of them, they didn't look like America.

SPEAKER_C

Just pick randos.

SPEAKER_B

This was one of the most important ideas of the 20th century.

SPEAKER_D

that would be the golden age of polling.

SPEATED_D

My comment to my colleagues was, relish this moment.

SPEAKER_B

The response rate for telephone polls, that's plummeted to like less than one in 20.

SPEAKER_B

And what made it worse was in 2015, the FCC took away a really important tool.

SPEAKER_C

Barbara says the FCC rule, it tripled their costs.

SPEAKER_B

Like some analysts think that Trump supporters specifically are less likely to talk to pollsters.

SPEAKER_B

Is this the death of the telephone poll?

SPEAKER_B

And lately, this has been really hard, like existential crisis for the polling industry hard.